Following the correction to $99k, the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Composite flashed an exhaustion signal, highlighting severe unrealized loss and investor capitulation across the weekly-monthly timeframe.
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
Institutional capital flows, stablecoin dominance, and the rise of Layer-2s - these were the key forces shaping the digital asset markets over the past few months.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
The Week On-Chain, Week 4, 2025
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
BTC balances on exchanges drop - does this mean we're in for a supply squeeze?
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
As much as 7.91% of Bitcoin's supply - based on UTXOs' creation date - has already changed hands this year. At the same time, 31.34% of the supply was last transacted in 2024.
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands
The Week On-Chain - Week 05, 2025
The regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin is constantly changing, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop. In this article, we analyze how the composition of digital asset investors is changing around it.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with extremely deep liquidity, available 24/7, allowing investors to express their macroeconomic views even when traditional markets are closed.
🔸Bitcoin continues to prove itself as both a store of value asset, accruing over $850B in net capital inflows, and a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9B in economic volume per day.
🔸Multipple metrics show new demand remains elevated but is well below previous cycle peaks.
🔸Institutional investors are growing, reducing drawdown severity and compressing volatility over time.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
The regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin is constantly changing, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop. In this article, we analyze how the composition of digital asset investors is changing around it.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with extremely deep liquidity, available 24/7, allowing investors to express their macroeconomic views even when traditional markets are closed.
🔸Bitcoin continues to prove itself as both a store of value asset, accruing over $850B in net capital inflows, and a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9B in economic volume per day.
🔸Multipple metrics show new demand remains elevated but is well below previous cycle peaks.
🔸Institutional investors are growing, reducing drawdown severity and compressing volatility over time.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
📢 New Report Release: Glassnode x Gemini - 2025 Crypto Asset Trends
Explore the forces shaping the crypto market in 2025 with our latest 35-page report, featuring:
🔸Retail investor resurgence
🔹Insights into derivatives and institutional participation
🔸Solana's rise compared to Ethereum
🔹ETF market impacts
🔸Memecoin sector analysis
🔹Regional adoption trends
Download the full report for comprehensive, data-driven insights.
Explore the forces shaping the crypto market in 2025 with our latest 35-page report, featuring:
🔸Retail investor resurgence
🔹Insights into derivatives and institutional participation
🔸Solana's rise compared to Ethereum
🔹ETF market impacts
🔸Memecoin sector analysis
🔹Regional adoption trends
Download the full report for comprehensive, data-driven insights.
Stablecoin circulating supply has increased by $16.97B since the start of 2025, rising from $194.2B to $211.2B. However, the pace of growth has varied, with a slowdown in early 2025 before picking up again in February.
Throughout November and December, stablecoins were growing by ~$450M per day. In January, the rate declined to ~$400M per day, but February has seen a rebound, with $541M per day. This suggests renewed liquidity expansion after a period of deceleration.
Momentum accelerated in mid-January as the 7-day average moved above the 30-day SMA, signaling increased short-term demand.
Throughout November and December, stablecoins were growing by ~$450M per day. In January, the rate declined to ~$400M per day, but February has seen a rebound, with $541M per day. This suggests renewed liquidity expansion after a period of deceleration.
Momentum accelerated in mid-January as the 7-day average moved above the 30-day SMA, signaling increased short-term demand.
Stage 2 of our TON Blockchain integration is live!
Glassnode now offers an expanded suite of on-chain and derivatives metrics for TON, providing deeper insights into its market activity, supply dynamics, and investor behavior.
Newly added metrics include:
🔹 Supply Last Active by Age Bands: track dormant vs. active supply
🔹 Futures OI & Volume: monitor derivatives activity
🔹 MVRV & SOPR: assess profitability and market cycles
Use these to analyze holding trends, liquidity, investor sentiment, and more!
Explore the full suite of TON metrics, starting with our dedicated Dashboard.
Glassnode now offers an expanded suite of on-chain and derivatives metrics for TON, providing deeper insights into its market activity, supply dynamics, and investor behavior.
Newly added metrics include:
🔹 Supply Last Active by Age Bands: track dormant vs. active supply
🔹 Futures OI & Volume: monitor derivatives activity
🔹 MVRV & SOPR: assess profitability and market cycles
Use these to analyze holding trends, liquidity, investor sentiment, and more!
Explore the full suite of TON metrics, starting with our dedicated Dashboard.
The Week On-Chain - Week 07, 2025
Bitcoin is trading in the $93k-$97k range, leading to a wider digital asset market cooldown. Capital inflows are weakening, and derivatives activity is declining. Short-term holder accumulation patterns somewhat resemble May 2021, which was a relatively challenging set of market conditions.
Executive Summary
🔸After Bitcoin’s second attempt to break above $105k in late January, the market has entered a contraction phase, with monthly price momentum sharply declining across major assets.
🔸Solana has emerged as a market leader in capital inflows over the past two years, in contrast to Ethereum, which has comparatively struggled to attract sustained demand.
🔸Perpetual futures open interest has declined across Bitcoin (-11.1%), Ethereum (-23.8%), Solana (-6.2%), and Memecoins Index (-52.1%), reflecting a diminished appetite for leveraged speculation.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Bitcoin is trading in the $93k-$97k range, leading to a wider digital asset market cooldown. Capital inflows are weakening, and derivatives activity is declining. Short-term holder accumulation patterns somewhat resemble May 2021, which was a relatively challenging set of market conditions.
Executive Summary
🔸After Bitcoin’s second attempt to break above $105k in late January, the market has entered a contraction phase, with monthly price momentum sharply declining across major assets.
🔸Solana has emerged as a market leader in capital inflows over the past two years, in contrast to Ethereum, which has comparatively struggled to attract sustained demand.
🔸Perpetual futures open interest has declined across Bitcoin (-11.1%), Ethereum (-23.8%), Solana (-6.2%), and Memecoins Index (-52.1%), reflecting a diminished appetite for leveraged speculation.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled after an attempt to push into price discovery.
After a strong rally, BTC is now down 5.9% since early February, while ETH and SOL have dropped 16.9% and 33.1%. Memecoins, which surged +90.2% in late 2024, have now corrected -37.4%.
Diverging Performance Since 2023
🔹 Bitcoin → Trading 3.4x above April 2023 🔹 Solana → Peaked at 11.8x, now at 7.6x 🔹 Ethereum → Struggling, ranging between 1.3x and 2.0x 🔹 Memecoins → Peaked at 5.2x, now the weakest sector.
Moreover, Ethereum & Memecoins capital flows have flipped negative, with capital outflows of -0.1% and -5.9%, respectively.
Create Your Own Cross-Sector Analysis
For this comparison, our analysts built a Memecoin Index, but you can compare any project with BTC, its L1, and sector benchmarks. With Glassnode Studio covering BTC, major L1s, 700+ ERC-20s, and 60+ SPL tokens, you can build your own cross-asset analysis—no coding required.
🔗 Start here.
After a strong rally, BTC is now down 5.9% since early February, while ETH and SOL have dropped 16.9% and 33.1%. Memecoins, which surged +90.2% in late 2024, have now corrected -37.4%.
Diverging Performance Since 2023
🔹 Bitcoin → Trading 3.4x above April 2023 🔹 Solana → Peaked at 11.8x, now at 7.6x 🔹 Ethereum → Struggling, ranging between 1.3x and 2.0x 🔹 Memecoins → Peaked at 5.2x, now the weakest sector.
Moreover, Ethereum & Memecoins capital flows have flipped negative, with capital outflows of -0.1% and -5.9%, respectively.
Create Your Own Cross-Sector Analysis
For this comparison, our analysts built a Memecoin Index, but you can compare any project with BTC, its L1, and sector benchmarks. With Glassnode Studio covering BTC, major L1s, 700+ ERC-20s, and 60+ SPL tokens, you can build your own cross-asset analysis—no coding required.
🔗 Start here.