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#Opinion

✍️ Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, member of the Russian International Affairs Council.

Europe will eventually have to choose between the US and BRICS

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Key points:

💬 Rather than setting out to organize a genuine multipolar system based on mutual recognition of each nation’s core interests, <...> the US proceeded to enhance its exclusive and comprehensive dominance.

• This year, at the #BRICS Summit in Russia’s Kazan, the group will for the first time include the leaders of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Another major Eurasian institution is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (#SCO) <...> to be admitted soon. A number of other Eurasian countries, from Turkey to Thailand and from the Malpes to Mongolia, have voiced their intention to join either BRICS or SCO.

• To counter that trend among the members of what we increasingly call the World Majority, Washington has raised the profile of NATO in the Indo-Pacific; strengthened its Cold War-era bilateral and trilateral alliances in the Western Pacific, and founded a new one, #AUKUS, in the South Pacific.

❗️ All these multiple arrangements are completely dominated by the US and are aimed at containing and deterring Washington’s designated primary adversaries: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – with one overriding goal of defending America’s hegemonic position.

• In contrast to that, neither BRICS nor the SCO is dominated by a single power, or a tandem/triumvirate of nations. BRICS’s recent expansion also suggests that it does not aspire to become a version of the West’s G7, as an elitist steering group, or directoire, for the non-Western world.

• Neither BRICS nor the SCO is overtly anti-American or anti-Western: their main focus is internal rather than external, and they have their work cut out for them.

• The emerging mutual security space within the SCO will make the continent – minus Western Europe, for the time being – far more stable, whether in terms of strategic stability in major-power relations, regional security systems, or the risks of terrorism.

☝️ Eventually, the countries of Western Europe – or far western Eurasia, if you like – will have to make a choice between staying in the US orbit as America’s power continues to shrink, or reaching out east to a vast and vibrant new world next door.