#Italy, Ipsos poll:

European Parliament Election

FdI-ECR: 28% (+1)
PD-S&D: 21% (+2)
M5S-NI: 16% (-1)
FI-EPP: 9% (+1)
LEGA-ID: 8%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (-1)
IV-RE: 3%
+E-RE: 3%
A-RE: 3%
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 2% (new)
Italexit-*: 2%
DSP~NI: 1%
NM-EPP: 1%

+/- vs. 23 February - 5 March 2024

Fieldwork: 19-25 March 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Portugal: following last March's national parliament election, Luís Montenegro (PSD-EPP) has been sworn in as Prime Minister.

Montenegro replaces António Costa (PS-S&D) as head of government and Member of the European Council.

He will lead a minority government of centre-right PSD (EPP) and centre-right CDS (EPP), holding 80 seats out of 230 in the Assembly of the Republic.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/portugal

#Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), FOCUS poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 51% (-5)
Korčok (*~RE|EPP|ECR): 49% (+5)

+/- vs. 7-11 March 2024

Fieldwork: 28 March - 2 April 2024
Sample size: 1,015

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia/

#Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), NMS poll:

Korčok (*~RE|EPP|ECR): 52% (+3)
Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 48% (-3)

+/- vs. 13-18 March 2024

Fieldwork: 28 March - 2 April 2024
Sample size: 1,045

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia/

#Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 30%
AfD-ID: 19.5% (-0.5)
SPD-S&D: 15%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12.5% (-0.5)
BSW~LEFT: 6.5% (+0.5)
FDP-RE: 5%
LINKE-LEFT: 3.5% (+0.5)
FW-RE: 2.5% (+0.5)

+/- vs. 25-28 March 2024

Fieldwork: 28 March-2 April 2024
Sample size: 2,004

➤ http://europeelects.eu/germany

#Estonia, Norstat poll:

I-EPP: 28% (-1)
EKRE-ID: 17% (-2)
RE-RE: 17% (-1)
SDE-S&D: 14% (-1)
KE-RE: 13% (+2)
E200→RE: 5%
PP→EPP: 4% (+2)
EER-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 18-25 March 2024

Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2024
Sample size: 1,001

➤ http://europeelects.eu/estonia

Türkiye, local elections: the Central Electoral Commission (YSK) overturned the election result in Van due to the justice ministry objecting the right of Abdullah Zeydan (DEM-G/EFA) to run. The ministry’s objection was raised two days before the election.

Despite Zeydan achieving over 55% of the vote, the second place candidate Abdulahat Arvas (AKP~NI) is the declared winner with 27.1% of the vote.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/turkiye
#Turkey

#France, Harris x Toluna poll:

European Parliament election

RN-ID: 31% (+1)
Bd'E-RE: 17% (-1)
PS/PP-S&D: 13% (+1)
LFI-LEFT: 8% (+1)
LR-EPP: 7%
LÉ-G/EFA: 6% (-1)
REC-ECR: 6%
PCF-LEFT: 3%
PA-LEFT: 1%
LO-*: 1%
LP~NI: 1% (+0.5)
AR-*: 1%
UPR-*: 0.5%
PRG~S&D: 0.5%
EAC~G/EFA: 0.5%
EPT~RE: 0.5%
NE→EPP: 0.5%

+/- vs. 22-25 March 2024

Fieldwork: 28-29 March 2024
Sample size: 2,220

➤ https://europeelects.eu/france

64 days until the first day of the EU Parliament election.

The right-wing ID group has been declining in our projections due to losses in France (RN) + Germany (AfD), as well as the removal of Bulgarian Vŭzrazhdane party from ID's website after meetings with representatives of United Russia, the major party backing Vladimir Putin.

Details: https://europeelects.eu/2024/03/31/march-2024/

#Slovakia, presidential election (first round):

Candidate of the centre-right ZĽ~EPP Patrik Dubovský, who finished 7th with 0.71% of the vote, endorses Ivan Korčok (supported by PS-RE, KDH-EPP, SaS-ECR, D-EPP) for the second round of the Presidential election on 6 April 2024.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia

#Slovakia, presidential election (first round):

Leader of the centre-right Slovensko-EPP Igor Matovič, who finished 5th with 2.18% of the vote, endorses Ivan Korčok (supported by PS-RE, KDH-EPP, SaS-ECR, D-EPP) for the second round of the Presidential election on 6 April 2024.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia

#Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), Ipsos poll:

Korčok (*): 50% (+5)
Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 50% (-5)

+/- vs. 16-19 March 2024

Fieldwork: 30 March - 2 April 2024

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia/

#Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), MEDIAN SK poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 51% (-2)
Korčok (*): 49% (+2)

+/- vs. 7-13 March 2024

Fieldwork: 28-31 March 2024
Sample size: 1,218

➤ https://europeelects.eu/slovakia/

Türkiye, local elections: the Central Electoral Commission (YSK) canceled the decision of the Van Province Electoral Commission regarding the overturn of the Van metropolitan election results.

Abdullah Zeydan (DEM-G/EFA) is declared as the winner.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/turkiye
#Turkey

#Ireland, Ireland Thinks poll:

SF-LEFT: 27%
FG-EPP: 22% (+2)
FF-RE: 17% (-1)
SD→S&D: 6% (-1)
GP-G/EFA: 4%
LAB-S&D: 4%
AON-*: 4% (+2)
PBP/S~LEFT: 2%

+/- vs. 2 March 2024

Fieldwork: 23 March 2024
Sample size: 1,304

➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland

#Ireland, Red C poll:

SF-LEFT: 25% (-3)
FG-EPP: 19% (-1)
FF-RE: 16%
SD→S&D: 6% (-1)
AON-*: 5% (+2)
GP-G/EFA: 4% (+1)
LAB-S&D: 3% (-1)
PBP/S~LEFT: 3%

+/- vs. 21 February 2024

Fieldwork: 20 March 2024
Sample size: 1,027

➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland

#Italy (#Basilicata), BiDiMedia poll:

Presidential election

Bardi (FI-EPP): 53% (+11)
Marrese (PD-S&D): 46% (+13)
Follia (Volt-G/EFA): 1% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election

Fieldwork: 27-28 March 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Basilicata2024 #Regionali2024

UK (GB), YouGov poll:

MRP seat projection

LAB-S&D: 403 (+18)
CON~ECR: 155 (-14)
LDEM-RE: 49 (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 19 (-6)
PC-G/EFA: 4 (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 1
REFORM~NI: 0

+/- vs. 12 December 2023 - 4 January 2024

Fieldwork: 7-27 March 2024
Sample size: 18,761

➤ https://europeelects.eu/uk
#UnitedKingdom

#Italy, Euromedia poll:

European Parliament Election

Scenario: SUE, Az+ and Libertà lists run

FdI-ECR: 28%
PD-S&D: 19% (-1)
M5S-NI: 18% (+1)
LEGA-ID: 9%
FI-EPP: 8%
SUE-RE|S&D|G/EFA: 5% (-1)
Az+-RE: 4%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 4%
Libertà-*: 2% (new)
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 2% (new)
NM-EPP: 1%

+/- vs. 11 March 2024

Fieldwork: 27-28 March 2024
Sample size: 800

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Iceland, Maskína poll:

S-S&D: 26% (-1)
D-EPP: 18%
M~EPP|RE: 12% (+1)
P-G/EFA: 10% (+1)
C-RE: 10% (+1)
B~RE: 9%
F~RE: 6%
V~LEFT: 7% (+1)
J-*: 4%

+/- vs. 27 February 2024
Fieldwork: 6-12 March 2024
Sample size: 1,753

➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland/