Europe Elects Official
3.77K subscribers
17.8K photos
1 video
18.8K links
The official Telegram account for Europe Elects: providing polling aggregation and analysis from all over Europe.

https://europeelects.eu
加入频道
#France: motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier (LR-EPP)

Majority: 288
Votes in favour of the motion: 331

Barnier lost the National Assembly’s confidence and president Emmanuel Macron (RE-RE) will have to nominate a new Prime Minister. The social security budget bill is also rejected.

After 1962, this is the second time in the history of the Fifth Republic that a motion of no confidence has been adopted.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Ardennes’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round:

Preliminary final results

Vuibert (*-RE): 50.9% (+4)
Duflot (RN-PfE): 49.1% (-4)

+/- vs. July 2024 election

Laurent Vuibert (*-RE) wins back the seat he held between 2022 and July 2024.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France: President Emmanuel Macron (RE-RE) has appointed François Bayrou (MoDem-RE) as Prime Minister and asked him to form a government.

Bayrou is the current High Commissioner of Planning, mayor of Pau, and president of the Mouvement démocrate (RE), which has been part of the presidential coalition since 2017. He also was a brief Minister of Justice in Édouard Philippe’s (HOR-RE) government, and a Minister of National Education under Prime Ministers Édouard Balladur (RPR-EDA) and Alain Juppé (RPR-EDA).

https://europeelects.eu/france
Forwarded from Oceania Elects Official
#France (New #Caledonia): the government presided over by Louis Mapou (Palika, Left) has fallen after a collective resignation by members of the Calédonie Ensemble (Liberal) list.
Mapou was the first ever pro-independence President of the government. Congress will elect a new one.

https://oceaniaelects.com/new-caledonia/
#France (Isères’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round today:

➤ Eligible voters: ~84,000
➤ Polls open: 8am-8pm CET
➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies
➤ Incumbent party: LFI-LEFT since 2024. Hugo Prevost resigned after accusations of sexual violence.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isère’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

Louffok (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 28.2% (-12)
Galliard-Minier (RE-RE): 26.5% (-7.5)
Béranger (LR-EPP): 16.7% (+10)
Lacroix (LR/RN-EPP|PfE): 11% (-7)
Gerbi (DVC~RE): 7.7% (n.a.)
Offranc-Piret (EQX-*): 7.4% (n.a.)
Adam (LO-*): 0.7%
Anglade (NPA-LEFT): 0.6% (n.a.)
Périer (*): 0.4% (n.a.)
Jarry (PT~LEFT): 0.2% (n.a.)
Le Morzellec (*): 0% (n.a.)

Lyes Louffok and Camille Galliard-Minier advance to the second round, which will be held on January 19.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isères’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round today:

➤ Eligible voters: ~84,000
➤ Polls open: 8am-8pm CET
➤ Electoral system: 2-round, single-member constituencies
➤ Incumbent party: LFI (LEFT) since 2024. Hugo Prevost resigned after accusations of sexual violence.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Isère’s 1st constituency), national parliament by-election, second round:

Preliminary final results

Galliard-Minier (RE-RE): 64.3%
Louffok (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 35.7%

Camille Galliard-Minier flips the seat back to Renaissance.

Note: there was a three-way runoff in 2024.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France (Hauts-de-Seine’s 9th constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

de Maistre (LR-EPP): 59.7%
de Jerphanion (HOR-RE): 40.4%

Les Républicains (LR-EPP) pick up a seat in the National Assembly following Stéphane Séjourné’s (RE-RE) resignation. In the 2024 election in this department, LR and RE were in a coalition.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Scenario: PS-S&D leaves the NFP-LEFT|G/EFA

RN-PfE: 35%
Ensemble-RE: 15%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA: 14%
LR-EPP: 13%
PS/PP-S&D: 13%
REC-ESN: 3%
Divers gauche-*: 2%
Divers droite-*: 1%
DLF→ECR: 1%
UDR-EPP: 1%
Far-left candidates-*: 1%
Divers-*: 1%

Fieldwork: 5-6 February 2025
Sample size: 1,377

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Ifop poll:

Scenario: LFI-LEFT leaves the NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D

RN-PfE: 35% (+1)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 19%
Ensemble-RE: 15% (-2)
LR-EPP: 12% (+4)
LFI-LEFT: 8% (-3)
REC-ESN: 3% (-1)
Divers gauche-*: 2.5% (-0.5)
Far-left candidates-*: 1.5% (+0.5)
Divers-*: 1.5% (+0.5)
Divers droite-*: 1% (-1)
DLF→ECR: 1% (n.a.)
UDR-EPP: 0.5% (n.a.)

+/- vs. 10-11 June 2024

Fieldwork: 5-6 February 2025
Sample size: 1,377

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, (Jura's 2nd constituency), national parliament by-election, first round:

Preliminary final results

Dalloz (LR-EPP): 54.1%
Guichon (RN-PfE): 22.8%
Ternant (NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D): 16.1%
Michaud (*): 5.9%
Marchet (LO-*): 1.2%

In spite of Marie-Christine Dalloz receiving more than 50% of the vote, a second round will be needed as her result does not equal 25% of the registered voters.

europeelects.eu/france
#France: Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen (RN-PfE) has been sentenced to 4 years in jail and banned from holding public office for 5 years for embezzlement.

The ban, which disqualifies her from the 2027 presidential election, will come into force even if she appeals.

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Toluna Harris poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Retailleau runs as LR (EPP) candidate)

Bardella (RN-PfE): 35% (n.a.)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 23% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13% (-3)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 7% (n.a.)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 5% (-1)
Faure (PS-S&D): 5% (n.a.)
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 4% (n.a.)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 4% (-2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2%
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1% (-1)
Arthaud (LO-*): 1%

+/- vs. 1-4 September 2023

Fieldwork: 31 March 2025 (after Le Pen's conviction)
Sample size: 1,162

europeelects.eu/france
#France, Toluna Harris poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Wauquiez runs as LR (EPP) candidate)

Bardella (RN-PfE): 36% (n.a.)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 25% (+3)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13% (-3)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 5% (-1)
Faure (PS-S&D): 5% (n.a.)
Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 4% (-1)
Tondelier (LÉ-G/EFA): 4% (n.a.)
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 4% (-2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2%
Poutou (NPA-LEFT): 1% (-1)
Arthaud (LO-*): 1%

+/- vs. 1-4 September 2023

Fieldwork: 31 March 2025 (after Le Pen's conviction)
Sample size: 1,162

europeelects.eu/france
#France, Elabe poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Hollande (PS-S&D), Philippe (HOR-RE), Retailleau (LR-EPP) and Le Pen (RN-PfE) run)

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 32% (+1)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 23.5% (n.a.)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-8.5)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 8% (n.a.)
...

+/- vs. 3-5 April 2023

Fieldwork: 2-4 April 2025
Sample size: 1,533

https://europeelects.eu/france
#France, Elabe poll:

Presidential election (scenario: Hollande (PS-S&D), Philippe (HOR-RE), Retailleau (LR-EPP) and Bardella (RN-PfE) run)

Bardella (RN-PfE): 31.5% (n.a.)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 23% (n.a.)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (-8.5)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 9% (n.a.)
...

+/- vs. 3-5 April 2023

Fieldwork: 2-4 April 2025
Sample size: 1,533

https://europeelects.eu/france