#Ecuador: Current results from the referendum today show a victory for nine of the questions, and a defeat for the amendment reforming the Labour Code and the amendment that would have allowed Ecuador to adopt international arbitration agreements.

#Ecuador, Comunicaliza poll:

Approval rating for President Daniel Noboa (PID, centre)

Approve: 52% (-7)
Disapprove: 39% (+7)

(+/- vs. 9-12 May)

Fieldwork: 26-28 June 2024
Sample size: 4,333

#Ecuador, Comunicaliza poll:

Presidential election

Noboa (PID, centre): 51%
L. González (RC, left): 34%
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 5%
Kronfle (PSC, centre-right): 2%

Fieldwork: 26-28 June 2024
Sample size: 4,333

#Ecuador, Comunicaliza poll:

Presidential election

Noboa (PID, centre): 53%
Jalkh (RC, left): 29%
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 6%
Kronfle (PSC, centre-right): 3%

Fieldwork: 26-28 June 2024
Sample size: 4,333

#Ecuador, presidential election, Maluk Research poll:

González (RC, left): 39.7%
Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 27.8%
Topić (SUMA, centre-right): 6.0%
Serrano (CD, centre-left): 3.2%
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 3.1%
…

Fieldwork: Aug 18-31
Size: 4,516

#Ecuador: The Electoral Tribunal has disqualified Jan Topić (SUMA, centre-right) from the 2025 presidential election on the grounds that he is improperly invested in companies holding state contracts. Topić came fourth in the 2023 election.

#Ecuador, Comunicaliza poll

Presidential election

Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 36%
Gonzalez (RC, left): 33%
Salazar (MUPP, indigenous): 2.5%
Jairala (CD, centre-left): 1.3%
…
+/- vs 2023 election

Fieldwork: 11 - 15 December 2024
Sample size: 4,486

#Ecuador, Altica Research poll:

Presidential election

Gonzalez (RC, left): 46% (+12)
Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 39% (+15)
Tabacchi (CREO, conservative): 5%
Salazar (MUPP, indigenous): 4%
…
+/- vs 2023 election

Fieldwork: 1 - 7 December 2024
Sample size: 1,000

#Ecuador, Cedatos poll:

Presidential election

Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 48% (+20)
Gonzalez (RC|RETO, left|centre-right): 33% (-1) Jairala (CD, centre-left): 5% Tabacchi (CREO, conservative): 4%
…
+/- 2023 election

Fieldwork: 17 - 20 December 2024
Sample size: 3,444

#Ecuador, Cedatos poll:

Legislative election

RC (left): 28% (-12)
ADN (centre-right): 23% CREO (conservative): 4%
CD (centre-left): 3%
MUPP (indigenous): 2%
…

+/- vs 2023 election

Fieldwork: 17 - 20 December 2024
Sample size: 3,444

#Ecuador, comunicaliza poll:

Presidential election

Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 40% (+4)
L. Gonzalez (RC, left): 35% (+2)
A. Gonzalez (PSP, centre-right): 4% (+3)
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 2%
…

+/- 11 - 15 December 2024

Fieldwork: 20 - 22 January 2025
Sample size: 4,486

#Ecuador, IPSOS poll:

Presidential election

Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 47%
L. Gonzalez (RC, left): 32%
A. Gonzalez (PSP, center-right): 5%
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 3%
...

Fieldwork: 20 - 24 January 2024
Sample size: 2,000

#Ecuador, presidential election:

Preliminary results: 90.3% counted

Noboa (ADN, centre-right): 44.3% (-0.1)
L. González (RC, left): 43.9% (+0.1)
Iza (MUPP, indigenous): 5.2% (+0.4)
...

(+/- vs. 80% counted)

#Ecuador: This election marks a shift towards two-party dominance. Leonidas Iza’s (MUPP, indigenous) result of 5.3% is the lowest for a third-placing presidential candidate since 1933. The top two candidates have a combined total of 88%.

#Ecuador, preliminary seat count results:

ADN (centre-right): 66
RC (left): 65
MUPP (indigenous): 9
PSC (centre-right): 4
…

#Ecuador: Here is our map of results in the first round of the presidential election. It was a close race, with Luisa González (RC|RETO, left|centre-right) winning most provinces on the coast and Daniel Noboa (ADN, centre-right) winning mostly in the interior.

#Ecuador: Here is our map of the seat count for the National Assembly. No party will hold a majority.