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Forwarded from PoliticsGR - Geopolitics, Intel, News, Statistics
🇩🇪 Saxony State Election Exit Poll (Das Erste):
🗳 CDU: 31.5%
🗳 AfD: 30%
🗳 BSW: 12%
🗳 SPD: 8.5%
🗳 Grüne: 5.5%
🗳 Linke: 4%
🗳 Other: 8.5%
🗺 @PoliticsGR
🗳 CDU: 31.5%
🗳 AfD: 30%
🗳 BSW: 12%
🗳 SPD: 8.5%
🗳 Grüne: 5.5%
🗳 Linke: 4%
🗳 Other: 8.5%
🗺 @PoliticsGR
Forwarded from PoliticsGR - Geopolitics, Intel, News, Statistics
🇩🇪 Thuringia State Election Exit Poll (Das Erste):
🗳 AfD: 30.5%
🗳 CDU: 24.5%
🗳 BSW: 16%
🗳 Linke: 12.5%
🗳 SPD: 7%
🗳 Grüne: 4%
🗳 FDP: 1.3%
🗳 Other: 4.2%
🗺 @PoliticsGR
🗳 AfD: 30.5%
🗳 CDU: 24.5%
🗳 BSW: 16%
🗳 Linke: 12.5%
🗳 SPD: 7%
🗳 Grüne: 4%
🗳 FDP: 1.3%
🗳 Other: 4.2%
🗺 @PoliticsGR
Global Intel Watch
🇩🇪 Thuringia State Election Exit Poll (Das Erste): 🗳 AfD: 30.5% 🗳 CDU: 24.5% 🗳 BSW: 16% 🗳 Linke: 12.5% 🗳 SPD: 7% 🗳 Grüne: 4% 🗳 FDP: 1.3% 🗳 Other: 4.2% 🗺 @PoliticsGR
🇩🇪 - 2 options: a CDU coalition with BSW or a CDU minority which would sometimes ally with AfD
Forwarded from PoliticsGR - Geopolitics, Intel, News, Statistics
🇩🇪 Seat Composition of the Landtagen in Saxony and Thuringia.
🗳 To form a government parties need 61 seats in Saxony and 45 in Thuringia. There are 2 coalition options in Saxony and 1 in Thuringia:
🔸 Saxony: CDU + SPD + Grüne (63 seats)
🔸 Saxony: CDU + BSW + SPD (71 seats)
🔸 Thuringia: CDU + BSW + SPD (46 seats)
💬 In Saxony, I believe the current coalition will be repeated (it’s the first option), while in Thuringia parties will have to make compromises in order to govern with a populist party (BSW).
🗺 @PoliticsGR
🗳 To form a government parties need 61 seats in Saxony and 45 in Thuringia. There are 2 coalition options in Saxony and 1 in Thuringia:
🔸 Saxony: CDU + SPD + Grüne (63 seats)
🔸 Saxony: CDU + BSW + SPD (71 seats)
🔸 Thuringia: CDU + BSW + SPD (46 seats)
💬 In Saxony, I believe the current coalition will be repeated (it’s the first option), while in Thuringia parties will have to make compromises in order to govern with a populist party (BSW).
🗺 @PoliticsGR
Different question: Who do you expect to win such a conflict?
Anonymous Poll
36%
Ethiopia
64%
Egypt and Somalia
Global Intel Watch
Different question: Who do you expect to win such a conflict?
🇪🇬🇸🇴🇪🇹 - I have a lot of respect for Egypt and on paper they are favorite but they are pretty much untested as far as expeditionary war is concerned. My prediction is that the war will be up to Egyptian logistic officers to win.
🇪🇬🇪🇹🇺🇸 - I predict the West's policy on this will be balanced by
1) the fact they don't want Egypt to grow too powerful... because there is a neighbor that Egypt have that wouldn't necessarily agree to such a scenario 🇮🇱 so expect a limit on the level of intensity the West will agree too for a potential Egyptian win.
2) Mediatically, their own rhetoric would likely compel them to give at least some condemnation of Ethiopia's behavior.
1) the fact they don't want Egypt to grow too powerful... because there is a neighbor that Egypt have that wouldn't necessarily agree to such a scenario
Forwarded from PoliticsGR - Geopolitics, Intel, News, Statistics
🇩🇪 According to statistics from Das Erste, 38% of 18-24 year old voters in Thuringia chose AfD, 16% Linke, and 12% BSW.
💬 This shows that support for populism is strong among young voters in East Germany and not just among the elderly, which usually expresses sympathy for the GDR. Another interesting conclusion is that BSW didn’t get many votes from AfD (13,000), even compared to diametrically opposed parties (CDU), hence allowing both parties to achieve considerable results.
🗺 @PoliticsGR
💬 This shows that support for populism is strong among young voters in East Germany and not just among the elderly, which usually expresses sympathy for the GDR. Another interesting conclusion is that BSW didn’t get many votes from AfD (13,000), even compared to diametrically opposed parties (CDU), hence allowing both parties to achieve considerable results.
🗺 @PoliticsGR
🇮🇱 - Today a massive protest was held in Tel-Aviv demanding the release of hostages and decrying Netanyahu. According to organisers, it was attended by 500,000 people and an additional 200,000 protested across other parts of the country.
There will also be a nationwide general strike tomorrow. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has reportedly asked the Attorney General to submit a request to courts to block the strike.
- Times of Israel, Ynet
There will also be a nationwide general strike tomorrow. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has reportedly asked the Attorney General to submit a request to courts to block the strike.
- Times of Israel, Ynet
🇮🇱 - Why are headlines about Israel always " 🇮🇱 - Finance minister Smotrich says want [Insanely agressive idea]" into nothing happening out of it? 🤔
If its saber rattling, why bother covering it?
If its saber rattling, why bother covering it?
🇷🇺🇺🇦 - Why wokeness doesn't work as a policy-making tool.
You have one guy arguing over the obvious fact that coexistence with Russia is necessary to avoid nuclear war, which is well established fact since decades.
Then, you have another guy that says "But you lack emotional awareness!" and tries to claim the higher ground. Not a journalist from some local MSM, not a politician from some center-right party: an academician.
That's why the West is losing: its trading reason for emotion. And emotion leads to bad policy making.
That's because people in charge are people from the middle class with comfort but little actual historical knowledge, and those type of people love having absurd ideas they know doesn't work because they have the luxury to. Take how middle class bourgeois in France always oppose any effort to increase security for the everyday man as an example.
The problem is that even them would be impacted in case of nuclear war. But I guess that would respect their emotions... right?
You have one guy arguing over the obvious fact that coexistence with Russia is necessary to avoid nuclear war, which is well established fact since decades.
Then, you have another guy that says "But you lack emotional awareness!" and tries to claim the higher ground. Not a journalist from some local MSM, not a politician from some center-right party: an academician.
That's why the West is losing: its trading reason for emotion. And emotion leads to bad policy making.
That's because people in charge are people from the middle class with comfort but little actual historical knowledge, and those type of people love having absurd ideas they know doesn't work because they have the luxury to. Take how middle class bourgeois in France always oppose any effort to increase security for the everyday man as an example.
The problem is that even them would be impacted in case of nuclear war. But I guess that would respect their emotions... right?
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇼 - Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te :
"If China’s claims on Taiwan are about territorial integrity then it should also take back land from Russia signed over by the last Chinese dynasty in the 19th century".
"If China’s claims on Taiwan are about territorial integrity then it should also take back land from Russia signed over by the last Chinese dynasty in the 19th century".