Rob Lee (Twitter)
One reason for the difference in casualty estimates has to do with how you count a destroyed Russian BTR or BMP. If you count each as full, you'll have a higher estimate, but we know that many BMP/BTR only had 3-4 personnel and many were destroyed after they were abandoned.
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@KofmanMichael:
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle. 19/
One reason for the difference in casualty estimates has to do with how you count a destroyed Russian BTR or BMP. If you count each as full, you'll have a higher estimate, but we know that many BMP/BTR only had 3-4 personnel and many were destroyed after they were abandoned.
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@KofmanMichael:
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle. 19/
Twitter
Michael Kofman
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
As an example, Russia's 1st Tank Army reportedly lost 308 vehicles by mid-March but only sustained 61 KIA (possibly higher with the MIA figure), which is a pretty low figure. Though more vehicles were abandoned at the beginning of the war than later on.
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@RALee85:
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
https://t.co/Qh0CWECA9S https://t.co/qbm2gMlnDo
As an example, Russia's 1st Tank Army reportedly lost 308 vehicles by mid-March but only sustained 61 KIA (possibly higher with the MIA figure), which is a pretty low figure. Though more vehicles were abandoned at the beginning of the war than later on.
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@RALee85:
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
https://t.co/Qh0CWECA9S https://t.co/qbm2gMlnDo
IgorGirkin (Twitter)
🇷🇺 без зупину гатять по Сєвєродонецьку. Пошкоджено будинки, знову обстріляли лікарню. Щонайменше 10 загиблих
https://yangx.top/serhiy_hayday/6526
🇷🇺 без зупину гатять по Сєвєродонецьку. Пошкоджено будинки, знову обстріляли лікарню. Щонайменше 10 загиблих
https://yangx.top/serhiy_hayday/6526
Telegram
Сергій Гайдай / Луганська ОДА
📌 рашисти без зупину гатять по Сєвєродонецьку. Пошкоджено будинки, знову обстріляли лікарню. Щонайменше 10 загиблих
орки цілий день ведуть прицілий вогонь по місту. Найбільше дісталося медмістечку, прилетіло майже в кожен корпус Сєвєродонецької лікарні.…
орки цілий день ведуть прицілий вогонь по місту. Найбільше дісталося медмістечку, прилетіло майже в кожен корпус Сєвєродонецької лікарні.…
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
Breastworks were built, armored personnel carriers, checkpoints and concrete blocks were set up 2 km from the border with Ukraine.
@svaboda tells what is happening on the border between Belarus and Ukraine, where soldiers marked with red tapes were seen.
1/4
Breastworks were built, armored personnel carriers, checkpoints and concrete blocks were set up 2 km from the border with Ukraine.
@svaboda tells what is happening on the border between Belarus and Ukraine, where soldiers marked with red tapes were seen.
1/4
IgorGirkin (Twitter)
ГШ, 18:00
В результаті вогневого ураження Силами оборони ворожих складів, що розміщувались в місті Ізюм, знищено значний запас боєприпасів
ГШ, 18:00
В результаті вогневого ураження Силами оборони ворожих складів, що розміщувались в місті Ізюм, знищено значний запас боєприпасів
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
“They built breastworks and set armored personnel carriers on the Gomel-Chernihiv highway, two kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Dump trucks were delivering sand. There were also checkpoints and concrete blocks, so it was only possible to move zigzag.
2/4
“They built breastworks and set armored personnel carriers on the Gomel-Chernihiv highway, two kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Dump trucks were delivering sand. There were also checkpoints and concrete blocks, so it was only possible to move zigzag.
2/4
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
Those who go to Belarusian villages of bordering area have their documents checked. A person was going towards Gomel – the military checked not only the documents, but also the trunk,” a resident of Gomel told @svaboda.
3/4
Those who go to Belarusian villages of bordering area have their documents checked. A person was going towards Gomel – the military checked not only the documents, but also the trunk,” a resident of Gomel told @svaboda.
3/4
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
In addition, the mother of one of the soldiers, who serves in the Slonim Mechanized Brigade, said that her son had spent more than a month on the border with Ukraine – in the Brahin district, and has now returned to Slonim.
4/4
In addition, the mother of one of the soldiers, who serves in the Slonim Mechanized Brigade, said that her son had spent more than a month on the border with Ukraine – in the Brahin district, and has now returned to Slonim.
4/4
IgorGirkin (Twitter)
ГШ, 18:00
На Лиманському напрямку ворог вів наступальні дії в районі населеного пункту Шандриголове.
ГШ, 18:00
На Лиманському напрямку ворог вів наступальні дії в районі населеного пункту Шандриголове.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@AVSIllini @br4s1d4s @KofmanMichael Yep, the brunt of the casualties were in maneuver units, particularly naval infantry, VDV, and spetsnaz. So Russia can't rely on them as heavily for the current offensive, and are instead throwing mobilized DNR/LNR guys into the fight with predictable results.
@AVSIllini @br4s1d4s @KofmanMichael Yep, the brunt of the casualties were in maneuver units, particularly naval infantry, VDV, and spetsnaz. So Russia can't rely on them as heavily for the current offensive, and are instead throwing mobilized DNR/LNR guys into the fight with predictable results.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
2528/
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@Nrg8000:
Putin's War - May 16th Map Briefing.
Today there are unconfirmed but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages.
Russia captured a village near Lyman and Adiivka.
4th map shows recaptured land in yellow. https://t.co/Su07hU8XD4
2528/
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@Nrg8000:
Putin's War - May 16th Map Briefing.
Today there are unconfirmed but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages.
Russia captured a village near Lyman and Adiivka.
4th map shows recaptured land in yellow. https://t.co/Su07hU8XD4
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
2529/
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@RALee85:
Russian Orlan-10 UAV footage reportedly of TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions.
https://t.co/k24TWVaDIz
https://t.co/AdjlkxVvLG https://t.co/SANGodXugp
2529/
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@RALee85:
Russian Orlan-10 UAV footage reportedly of TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions.
https://t.co/k24TWVaDIz
https://t.co/AdjlkxVvLG https://t.co/SANGodXugp