Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (Twitter)

RT @LucasFoxNews: Russian forces now within 10 miles of Ukraine’s border and near its second largest city, Kharkiv, new sat image from @Maxar shows https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1496607088457535492/photo/1

Danvan (Twitter)

RT @bobmoretti: @GirkinGirkin The original video is longer (though now removed from tiktok). In Russkaya Konopel'ka, Approx location 51.1815, 35.3909. https://twitter.com/bobmoretti/status/1496584684679024642/video/1

Danvan (Twitter)

RT @DmytroKuleba: Worrying reports from Crimea on the entire night shift of Titan chemicals plant in Armyansk evacuated from the facility. This might be a preparation for another staged provocation by Russia. Moscow seems to have no limits in attempts to falsify pretexts for further aggression.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@AKendallTaylor @jteurope Thanks Andrea.

Dan (Twitter)

381. Longer version of film in twt 380 now located in Russkaya Konopel'ka (51.181679, 35.39096) 18km from🇺🇦. Correction not T-72B3 but T-90A, etc of 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. Is there recent sat/SAR imagery of here?@The_Lookout_N @danvan71 @COUPSURE
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@bobmoretti:
@GirkinGirkin The original video is longer (though now removed from tiktok). In Russkaya Konopel'ka, Approx location 51.1815, 35.3909. https://t.co/BnYwGGcmY2

Rob Lee (Twitter)

RT @ABarbashin: It would be great if UK doesn't switch off @bbcrussian

Danvan (Twitter)

RT @Danspiun: 381. Longer version of film in twt 380 now located in Russkaya Konopel'ka (51.181679, 35.39096) 18km from🇺🇦. Correction not T-72B3 but T-90A, etc of 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. Is there recent sat/SAR imagery of here?@The_Lookout_N @danvan71 @COUPSURE

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

This is the issue. If Ukraine's military tries to fight a conventional war with Russia, it will be defeated. An unconventional fight means moving into cities, which will lead to greater civilian casualties. All urban warfare is destructive and Russia lacks large PGM stockpiles.
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@shashj:
"Ukraine’s odds are grim in a conventional fight, even with Western-supplied weapons. Its forces might convert into partisan warfare, or take to the cities. The latter would prove a difficult decision as urban warfare is immensely destructive" https://t.co/TRTkDrYDuw

Rob Lee (Twitter)

If Russia tries to conduct regime change, it will likely try to install someone who would reach out to elites in other cities. But if Russian forces go into cities, a lot of civilians could die. That would only increase resistance and make conflict termination more difficult. 2/

Dan (Twitter)

382. Crimea. Interesting as all are set up with snorkels for amphibious move. For the BTR-82As when not used these are the distinctive tubular sections seen on the exhausts.
16x BTR-82A
2x R-149MA1 comnd/staff
1x unclear maybe R-439MD2
R-166 comnd/signals
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@RoksolanaKrim:
Саки
не для того Баба бубочка ростила,щоб НАСПРАВДІ воювати.
Для"простоперестать",тихо виконати умови шантажиста.
Але шо є то є.
І від сьогодні це не просто катається,а з наміром захопити всю країну.
Нахіба комусь обгризки Донбаса?
Україні потрібен Главком.Пора нам це зрозуміти. https://t.co/G9jWJAUSAh

Dan (Twitter)

RT @KofmanMichael: I’ll go further. Two pincer movements. Small one to encircle Kiyv from the north, much larger one to envelop Ukrainian forces in the JFO. Several axes from Kursk, Belgorod & Crimea. Not including everything here like Valuyki or Millerovo.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

The big question is whether Russia can translate the use of military force into achieving its political goals and what will it do if it can't? A Russian invasion now would be an attempt to achieve what 2014-2015 failed to do, so more force is likely and compromise is less likely.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@vfroloff But to how many cities? That would also take time and what happens if people don't surrender? I think all of the options are very unpredictable if they attempt to do anything other than targeting the Ukrainian military.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

1745/
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@maxseddon:
@PentagonPresSec He addresses Russians in Russian.

"We are divided by a shared border of more than 2,000km. Almost 200,000 of your troops and thousands of military vehicles are standing alongside it. Your leadership has ordered them to move forward, onto another country's territory."

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

1746/
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@idreesali114:
France calls on its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately- Reuters

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

1747/
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@NatashaBertrand:
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko, has declared an emergency for the Ukrainian capital effective midnight local time, saying an "operational headquarters has been set up to coordinate the actions of the executive branch, the military command and law enforcement agencies."