Rob Lee (Twitter)
Putin clearly realizes that mobilization or de-escalation would be very unpopular (the 2nd would mean admitting it won't achieve its objectives), and that Russia can continue the current operation without much domestic blowback for the time being. But it can't do this forever. 2/
Putin clearly realizes that mobilization or de-escalation would be very unpopular (the 2nd would mean admitting it won't achieve its objectives), and that Russia can continue the current operation without much domestic blowback for the time being. But it can't do this forever. 2/
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
Golovchenko attended the farewell to the President of the United Arab Emirates in the UAE.
Yesterday we wrote that a business jet Bombardier Challenger 850 (reg. number EW-301PJ) flew from Minsk to Abu Dhabi.
1/5
Golovchenko attended the farewell to the President of the United Arab Emirates in the UAE.
Yesterday we wrote that a business jet Bombardier Challenger 850 (reg. number EW-301PJ) flew from Minsk to Abu Dhabi.
1/5
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
We suggested that Golovchenko, the Prime Minister of Belarus, could fly to the funeral of Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the President of the United Arab Emirates, who died three days ago. And today, the information was fully confirmed.
2/5
We suggested that Golovchenko, the Prime Minister of Belarus, could fly to the funeral of Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the President of the United Arab Emirates, who died three days ago. And today, the information was fully confirmed.
2/5
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
WAM news agency wrote that Roman Golovchenko attended the farewell ceremony to the UAE president, which was held at the Mushrif Palace in Abu Dhabi.
The photos above show Golovchenko with Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the third president of the UAE.
3/5
WAM news agency wrote that Roman Golovchenko attended the farewell ceremony to the UAE president, which was held at the Mushrif Palace in Abu Dhabi.
The photos above show Golovchenko with Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the third president of the UAE.
3/5
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
It’s notable that Belarusian state media have not said anything about the Prime Minister’s visit to the UAE, and are only publishing news about it prepared in advance.
4/5
It’s notable that Belarusian state media have not said anything about the Prime Minister’s visit to the UAE, and are only publishing news about it prepared in advance.
4/5
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
By the way, from 2013 to 2018, Golovchenko served as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Belarus to the UAE.
The visit is over and Golovchenko flew back to Minsk.
5/5
By the way, from 2013 to 2018, Golovchenko served as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Belarus to the UAE.
The visit is over and Golovchenko flew back to Minsk.
5/5
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The BM-30-D Spitsa turret (32V01) with a 2A42 30mm cannon from TsNII Burevestnik for the Vystrel vehicle has reportedly gone into serious production.
https://yangx.top/milinfolive/83140
The BM-30-D Spitsa turret (32V01) with a 2A42 30mm cannon from TsNII Burevestnik for the Vystrel vehicle has reportedly gone into serious production.
https://yangx.top/milinfolive/83140
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian Orlan-10 UAV footage reportedly of TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions.
https://yangx.top/faceofwar/19555
https://yangx.top/rosich_rus/9918
Russian Orlan-10 UAV footage reportedly of TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strikes on Ukrainian positions.
https://yangx.top/faceofwar/19555
https://yangx.top/rosich_rus/9918
Rob Lee (Twitter)
But continuing the offensive in the Donbas at this rate means this operation will become unsustainable faster than if Russia decided to dig in and defend the territory it currently holds. Domestic political considerations seem to be driving Russia's behavior. 3/
But continuing the offensive in the Donbas at this rate means this operation will become unsustainable faster than if Russia decided to dig in and defend the territory it currently holds. Domestic political considerations seem to be driving Russia's behavior. 3/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
One reason for the difference in casualty estimates has to do with how you count a destroyed Russian BTR or BMP. If you count each as full, you'll have a higher estimate, but we know that many BMP/BTR only had 3-4 personnel and many were destroyed after they were abandoned.
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@KofmanMichael:
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle. 19/
One reason for the difference in casualty estimates has to do with how you count a destroyed Russian BTR or BMP. If you count each as full, you'll have a higher estimate, but we know that many BMP/BTR only had 3-4 personnel and many were destroyed after they were abandoned.
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@KofmanMichael:
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle. 19/
Twitter
Michael Kofman
This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
As an example, Russia's 1st Tank Army reportedly lost 308 vehicles by mid-March but only sustained 61 KIA (possibly higher with the MIA figure), which is a pretty low figure. Though more vehicles were abandoned at the beginning of the war than later on.
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@RALee85:
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
https://t.co/Qh0CWECA9S https://t.co/qbm2gMlnDo
As an example, Russia's 1st Tank Army reportedly lost 308 vehicles by mid-March but only sustained 61 KIA (possibly higher with the MIA figure), which is a pretty low figure. Though more vehicles were abandoned at the beginning of the war than later on.
-----------
@RALee85:
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
https://t.co/Qh0CWECA9S https://t.co/qbm2gMlnDo