Rob Lee (Twitter)
Thread on the current status of the war. There are 4 areas/cities to watch over the next 1-2 weeks:
-Mikolaiv
-Mariupol
-Joint Forces Operation area
-Kyiv
Russian forces are having some successes pushing against JFO but less against Kyiv and Mikolaiv.
(map from @TheStudyofWar)
Thread on the current status of the war. There are 4 areas/cities to watch over the next 1-2 weeks:
-Mikolaiv
-Mariupol
-Joint Forces Operation area
-Kyiv
Russian forces are having some successes pushing against JFO but less against Kyiv and Mikolaiv.
(map from @TheStudyofWar)
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Mikolaiv is significant because Russia needs to take it if its forces are to seriously threaten Odesa, which appears to be a goal. However, the city continues to hold, and Russia has taken losses in the fighting. An amphibious landing would also be risky without further gains. 2/
Mikolaiv is significant because Russia needs to take it if its forces are to seriously threaten Odesa, which appears to be a goal. However, the city continues to hold, and Russia has taken losses in the fighting. An amphibious landing would also be risky without further gains. 2/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Mariupol is the first large city Russian forces have attempted to seize where Ukrainian forces are willing to fight block-by-block. Russia is progressing, but it is slow and costly. Mariupol gives us an indication of how costly an assault on Kyiv would be. 3/
Mariupol is the first large city Russian forces have attempted to seize where Ukrainian forces are willing to fight block-by-block. Russia is progressing, but it is slow and costly. Mariupol gives us an indication of how costly an assault on Kyiv would be. 3/
🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)
#Ukraine: A Russian BRM-1K recently destroyed, precise location unknown.
#Ukraine: A Russian BRM-1K recently destroyed, precise location unknown.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Mariupol is important because the forces committed to its seizure can't be used elsewhere. If/when Russia takes it, these forces can be committed to helping encircle Ukrainian forces to the north around the Donbas. The longer Mariupol holds out, the worse it is for Russia. 4/
Mariupol is important because the forces committed to its seizure can't be used elsewhere. If/when Russia takes it, these forces can be committed to helping encircle Ukrainian forces to the north around the Donbas. The longer Mariupol holds out, the worse it is for Russia. 4/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia's most recent successes have been in taking Izyum to the north of the JFO area and expanding in the SW of the Donbas. If Russian forces make a concerted advance from the south and to the SW from Izyum, they could threaten to encircle the JFO units. 5/
Russia's most recent successes have been in taking Izyum to the north of the JFO area and expanding in the SW of the Donbas. If Russian forces make a concerted advance from the south and to the SW from Izyum, they could threaten to encircle the JFO units. 5/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The significance of Kyiv is obvious, but Russia has struggled to encircle the city. Despite an air assault on Hostomel on the first day, Russian forces have been held back in the Bucha/Irpin area ever since and have sustained heavy casualties in the area. 6/
The significance of Kyiv is obvious, but Russia has struggled to encircle the city. Despite an air assault on Hostomel on the first day, Russian forces have been held back in the Bucha/Irpin area ever since and have sustained heavy casualties in the area. 6/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/
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@RALee85:
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
https://t.co/LYjM3blXKU https://t.co/JfE3tsr8br
Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/
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@RALee85:
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
https://t.co/LYjM3blXKU https://t.co/JfE3tsr8br
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/
It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/
Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Отчего у Вити грустное ебало? Оттого что Витю что-то заебало. А нефиг было сержанту в/ч из Мурманской обл. Вите #Шохин'у лазить по Украине без разрешения https://vk.com/wall318086447_3020 #потерьнет #груз200 #всрф
Отчего у Вити грустное ебало? Оттого что Витю что-то заебало. А нефиг было сержанту в/ч из Мурманской обл. Вите #Шохин'у лазить по Украине без разрешения https://vk.com/wall318086447_3020 #потерьнет #груз200 #всрф
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia may have 90% of its combat power still available, but the casualties have disproportionally affected its elite units, like the VDV, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz, and maneuver units. Those are the units needs to occupy territory and seize Kyiv. 10/
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@JackDetsch:
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading on Feb. 24.
Russia may have 90% of its combat power still available, but the casualties have disproportionally affected its elite units, like the VDV, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz, and maneuver units. Those are the units needs to occupy territory and seize Kyiv. 10/
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@JackDetsch:
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading on Feb. 24.
Twitter
Jack Detsch
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official. Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.