Situation on Syria (7/2/2024):
During the last night Israel launched a series of attacks in the city of Homs, specially the neighbourhood of Al-Hamra. As a result there was a series of material damages including several vehicles and a oil station. However, the attack, which theoretically was carried out towards military objectives, lead to the destruction of buildings filled with civilians. Consequently 7 civilians were killed and 13 were injured in this attack. Again an Israeli aggresion was done shortly after a few days ago US bombardment Resistance axis positions in Syrian and Irak. R.I.P. 🇸🇾
During the last night Israel launched a series of attacks in the city of Homs, specially the neighbourhood of Al-Hamra. As a result there was a series of material damages including several vehicles and a oil station. However, the attack, which theoretically was carried out towards military objectives, lead to the destruction of buildings filled with civilians. Consequently 7 civilians were killed and 13 were injured in this attack. Again an Israeli aggresion was done shortly after a few days ago US bombardment Resistance axis positions in Syrian and Irak. R.I.P. 🇸🇾
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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army advanced inside Heorhiivka taking control over most of the northern shore of Heorhiivskyi Pond.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.955504411103185%2C37.473072746996756&z=14 ]
Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army advanced inside Heorhiivka taking control over most of the northern shore of Heorhiivskyi Pond.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.955504411103185%2C37.473072746996756&z=14 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation on Avdivka front: Russian Army continue advancing along the streets of Pershotravneva, Nezalezhnosti, Sapronova, Lesi Ukrainky & Donetska as Ukrainian Army retreated towards Shestakova street. In addition, Russian forces took control over a section of the railway and part of the summer cottage area which allowed to move the frontline close to the Avdeevskaya Automobile Depot (48.15456466464795, 37.72327186322039). During the afternoon and evening several FAB were launched to the entire Private sector and the neighbouring areas of Coke Plant in order to accelerate the advances in Avdivka following the beginning of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the city (road towards Sjeverne was shelled today targeting the first troops).
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.136958218492516%2C37.739982414948265&z=13 ]
Situation on Avdivka front: Russian Army continue advancing along the streets of Pershotravneva, Nezalezhnosti, Sapronova, Lesi Ukrainky & Donetska as Ukrainian Army retreated towards Shestakova street. In addition, Russian forces took control over a section of the railway and part of the summer cottage area which allowed to move the frontline close to the Avdeevskaya Automobile Depot (48.15456466464795, 37.72327186322039). During the afternoon and evening several FAB were launched to the entire Private sector and the neighbouring areas of Coke Plant in order to accelerate the advances in Avdivka following the beginning of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the city (road towards Sjeverne was shelled today targeting the first troops).
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.136958218492516%2C37.739982414948265&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation north of Bakhmut: Russian Army recaptured the area west of Bohdanivka lost eight days ago.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.60453919685775%2C37.890863263291436&z=13 ]
Situation north of Bakhmut: Russian Army recaptured the area west of Bohdanivka lost eight days ago.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.60453919685775%2C37.890863263291436&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation on Seversk front: During the last week Russian Army improved the positions inside Zakhidna filtration plant west of Bilohorivka. However, it's premature to talk about the full recapture of the industrial complex.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.91644239927029%2C38.241791786504685&z=13 ]
Situation on Seversk front: During the last week Russian Army improved the positions inside Zakhidna filtration plant west of Bilohorivka. However, it's premature to talk about the full recapture of the industrial complex.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.91644239927029%2C38.241791786504685&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation on northeastern front: Map corrections were made showing Ukrainian Army still in control over the trench system northeast of Tabaivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.623021732140614%2C37.86817867247382&z=12 ]
Situation on northeastern front: Map corrections were made showing Ukrainian Army still in control over the trench system northeast of Tabaivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.623021732140614%2C37.86817867247382&z=12 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 714:
Situation southwest of Donetsk: Map corrections were made showing that Ukrainian Army eventually retook some positions northeast of Urozhaine.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.74270332472359%2C36.83241503291016&z=13 ]
Situation southwest of Donetsk: Map corrections were made showing that Ukrainian Army eventually retook some positions northeast of Urozhaine.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.74270332472359%2C36.83241503291016&z=13 ]
Today I saw something funny on social media, an individual who uses his opinion as an argument of authority and reliable source invited this account to receive a massive block for reporting the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdivka. The truth is not with me, but with the situation on the ground. Ukrainian troops have mined the new sector which is where the troops are leaving from, while another group of Ukrainian forces are making a big effort to keep the Russians occupied while the evacuation of the city is taking place. The situation is very reminiscent of what happened in Soledar when Ukrainian troops began to leave just hours before the collapse of the front. At that time Twitter/x experts began to accuse those reporting the withdrawal as liars. We all know how the battle of Soledar ended. Let the "experts" continue to make fools of themselves. Good night and see you tomorrow.
Forwarded from Kuzmenko Blog
Unas cuantas puntualizaciones sobre Avdeevka. Lo primero que debemos tener en cuenta es que el resultado de la operación no será estratégico. La importancia de Avdeevka es principalmente política al permitir aliviar los bombardeos con sistemas artilleros convencionales sobre la aglomeración de Donetsk, teniendo también importancia táctica al abrir el camino de avance en dirección Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka. Aunque todavía es pronto para hablar de ello, inhabilitar el centro logístico de Pokrovsk, probablemente el más importante en el frente oriental, supondría un resultado estratégico en el marco de la Batalla por el Donbas. Las características de Pokrovsk hacen que tenga todas las papeletas para convertirse en un escenario de batalla de desgaste similar a la Picadora de Bajmut. La ciudad, llamada Krasnoarmeisk hasta 2016 cuando las autoridades golpistas ucranianas le devolvieron el nombre zarista de Pokrovsk en el proceso de descomunización, es el corazón de toda la logística ucraniana.
La Batalla de Avdeevka se decidió en octubre-noviembre cuando los grupos de asalto rusos consiguieron consolidar su control sobre las alturas adyacentes al ferrocarril al norte de la fortaleza. Los avances rusos supusieron considerables bajas materiales, todos recordamos las columnas destruidas, pero fue el precio que se tuvo que pagar por conseguir el resultado actual. El mando ucraniano se dedicó a realizar contraataques sobre el flanco norte, comenzaron a aparecer imágenes de Bradleys destruidos intentando atacar posiciones elevadas cuesta arriba. La decisión rusa de no intentar avanzar hacia el interior, que habría supuesto un coste enorme que probablemente no daría resultado alguno por la vulnerabilidad de las pinzas, ha sido decisiva. Los avances tanto a lo largo del ferrocarril en el norte aprovechando las alturas como en dirección Pervomaiskoye al sur consiguieron extender los flancos, obligando a las Fuerzas Armadas ucranianas a repartir efectivos para cubrir cada vez más distancia. La presión en el sur para fijar tropas ucranianas permitió la ruptura en el norte. Las bombas guiadas también merecen una mención especial por su efectividad de ablandamiento de posiciones enemigas.
Algunas fuentes han vinculado la reciente aparición de tanques estadounidenses Abrams como elemento probatorio de la preparación de un contraataque ucraniano que alivie la situación. Seguramente se estén utilizando como meros cañones adicionales desde una distancia considerable. Que la situación sea realmente crítica para las Fuerzas Armadas ucranianas no significa que nos encontremos ante un inminente cerco de una agrupación importante. Las principales fuerzas se encuentran conteniendo los flancos, encontrándose en el interior de la fortaleza unidades principalmente de defensa territorial. Mi pronóstico sigue consistiendo en que el mando ucraniano retirará paulatinamente sus fuerzas. Esta retirada se realizará en condiciones precarias debido a la situación operativa, puede que el proceso haya comenzado.
La Batalla de Avdeevka se decidió en octubre-noviembre cuando los grupos de asalto rusos consiguieron consolidar su control sobre las alturas adyacentes al ferrocarril al norte de la fortaleza. Los avances rusos supusieron considerables bajas materiales, todos recordamos las columnas destruidas, pero fue el precio que se tuvo que pagar por conseguir el resultado actual. El mando ucraniano se dedicó a realizar contraataques sobre el flanco norte, comenzaron a aparecer imágenes de Bradleys destruidos intentando atacar posiciones elevadas cuesta arriba. La decisión rusa de no intentar avanzar hacia el interior, que habría supuesto un coste enorme que probablemente no daría resultado alguno por la vulnerabilidad de las pinzas, ha sido decisiva. Los avances tanto a lo largo del ferrocarril en el norte aprovechando las alturas como en dirección Pervomaiskoye al sur consiguieron extender los flancos, obligando a las Fuerzas Armadas ucranianas a repartir efectivos para cubrir cada vez más distancia. La presión en el sur para fijar tropas ucranianas permitió la ruptura en el norte. Las bombas guiadas también merecen una mención especial por su efectividad de ablandamiento de posiciones enemigas.
Algunas fuentes han vinculado la reciente aparición de tanques estadounidenses Abrams como elemento probatorio de la preparación de un contraataque ucraniano que alivie la situación. Seguramente se estén utilizando como meros cañones adicionales desde una distancia considerable. Que la situación sea realmente crítica para las Fuerzas Armadas ucranianas no significa que nos encontremos ante un inminente cerco de una agrupación importante. Las principales fuerzas se encuentran conteniendo los flancos, encontrándose en el interior de la fortaleza unidades principalmente de defensa territorial. Mi pronóstico sigue consistiendo en que el mando ucraniano retirará paulatinamente sus fuerzas. Esta retirada se realizará en condiciones precarias debido a la situación operativa, puede que el proceso haya comenzado.
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 715:
Situation southwest of Donetsk: Ukrainian Army managed to repel Russian Army advance at the eastern part of Novomykhailivka. It is premature to say that Ukrainian troops have regained full control of the town as fighting continues to the east and southeast of it.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.85199350599568%2C37.48100254445383&z=13 ]
Situation southwest of Donetsk: Ukrainian Army managed to repel Russian Army advance at the eastern part of Novomykhailivka. It is premature to say that Ukrainian troops have regained full control of the town as fighting continues to the east and southeast of it.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.85199350599568%2C37.48100254445383&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 715:
Situation north of Avdivka: Battles continue with enormous intensity in the industrial sector, the Russian Army is already fighting beyond the railway line, but has not yet managed to take control of important positions such as Automobil Depot and Alter Group Limited Liability Company, which would allow it to reach the industrial avenue, already under fire control. On the other hand, Russian troops reached the intersection of Sapronova and Piatydesiatyrichchia AKKhZ streets as Ukrainian troops continue to retreat towards the railway station. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Army has begun the withdrawal from its positions to the north-east in Gardening Association Verba, the withdrawal from the landfill hill could not yet be confirmed.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.147810552982406%2C37.76416332360719&z=13 ]
Situation north of Avdivka: Battles continue with enormous intensity in the industrial sector, the Russian Army is already fighting beyond the railway line, but has not yet managed to take control of important positions such as Automobil Depot and Alter Group Limited Liability Company, which would allow it to reach the industrial avenue, already under fire control. On the other hand, Russian troops reached the intersection of Sapronova and Piatydesiatyrichchia AKKhZ streets as Ukrainian troops continue to retreat towards the railway station. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Army has begun the withdrawal from its positions to the north-east in Gardening Association Verba, the withdrawal from the landfill hill could not yet be confirmed.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.147810552982406%2C37.76416332360719&z=13 ]
Today the rumours finally came true. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky dismissed Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from his post. After months of internal friction within the military leadership, the president has made a series of substantial changes, which are not clearly aimed at the military but at the political level. Zelensky needed to reinforce his authority after the Ukrainian armed forces' failure in 2023, and to this end he has appointed elements favourable to him. Among them is Oleksander Syrskyi, who has taken Zaluzhnyi's place. The military officer is known as the architect of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkov.
However, support in the army is low, especially after the battle to defend Bakhmut and his failed attempt to retake it in the summer of 2023.
The situation is very different from September 2022 and the Russian army is not suffering from manpower shortages, let alone ammunition shortages, with production steadily increasing. Given the Bakhmut experience, it is possible that political symbolism will once again take precedence over military pragmatism, resulting in the transfer of reserves to the city of Avdivka to contain the Russian advance, setting in motion a dynamic of attrition that would prolong the battle beyond February, but induce a substantial loss of Ukrainian personnel that would greatly affect Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the future.
Friction in the Ukrainian state continues to intensify, while the chances of regaining the initiative continue to recede. The war will sadly continue.
The situation is very different from September 2022 and the Russian army is not suffering from manpower shortages, let alone ammunition shortages, with production steadily increasing. Given the Bakhmut experience, it is possible that political symbolism will once again take precedence over military pragmatism, resulting in the transfer of reserves to the city of Avdivka to contain the Russian advance, setting in motion a dynamic of attrition that would prolong the battle beyond February, but induce a substantial loss of Ukrainian personnel that would greatly affect Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the future.
Friction in the Ukrainian state continues to intensify, while the chances of regaining the initiative continue to recede. The war will sadly continue.
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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 716:
Situation south of Avdivka: Recent video footage shows Russian Army combing operations in the streets of Chernyshevskogo, Sportyvna and Soborna streets. Contrary to some reports Ukrainian Army didn't retake this position and Russian soldiers walks without problems from Lesnaya garages (48.11763426147082, 37.766015402677105) until the intersection of the aforementioned streets (48.12147754130729, 37.75304292880062). There has been no Russian progress beyond this point, as all the fighting is taking place in the northern part of the city.
Situation south of Avdivka: Recent video footage shows Russian Army combing operations in the streets of Chernyshevskogo, Sportyvna and Soborna streets. Contrary to some reports Ukrainian Army didn't retake this position and Russian soldiers walks without problems from Lesnaya garages (48.11763426147082, 37.766015402677105) until the intersection of the aforementioned streets (48.12147754130729, 37.75304292880062). There has been no Russian progress beyond this point, as all the fighting is taking place in the northern part of the city.
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