#Iceland, Prósent poll:
S-S&D: 23% (-1)
C-RE: 19% (+4)
M~EPP|RE: 15% (-1)
D-EPP: 14% (+1)
F~RE: 11%
B~RE: 6%
P-G/EFA: 5% (-1)
J-*: 4%
V~LEFT|RE: 3% (+1)
L-*: 2% (+1)
+/- vs. 18 - 24 October 2024
Fieldwork: 25-31 October 2024
Sample size: 2,400
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland/
S-S&D: 23% (-1)
C-RE: 19% (+4)
M~EPP|RE: 15% (-1)
D-EPP: 14% (+1)
F~RE: 11%
B~RE: 6%
P-G/EFA: 5% (-1)
J-*: 4%
V~LEFT|RE: 3% (+1)
L-*: 2% (+1)
+/- vs. 18 - 24 October 2024
Fieldwork: 25-31 October 2024
Sample size: 2,400
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland/
#Iceland: The centre to centre-right Liberal Reform Party (C-RE) rises to 18.7% in the latest Prósent poll. This is the highest poll result for C ever.
If repeated in a national parliament election, it would be the best result for C in its history.
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland
If repeated in a national parliament election, it would be the best result for C in its history.
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland
#Iceland, Gallup poll:
S-S&D: 24% (-2)
D-EPP: 17% (+3)
M~EPP|RE: 17% (-2)
C-RE: 14% (+4)
P-G/EFA: 5% (-3)
F~RE: 8%
B~RE: 7% (+1)
J-*: 5%
V~LEFT|RE: 4%
L-*: 1% (new)
+/- vs. 30 August - 30 September 2024
Fieldwork: 1 - 31 October 2024
Sample size: 5,759
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland/
S-S&D: 24% (-2)
D-EPP: 17% (+3)
M~EPP|RE: 17% (-2)
C-RE: 14% (+4)
P-G/EFA: 5% (-3)
F~RE: 8%
B~RE: 7% (+1)
J-*: 5%
V~LEFT|RE: 4%
L-*: 1% (new)
+/- vs. 30 August - 30 September 2024
Fieldwork: 1 - 31 October 2024
Sample size: 5,759
➤ https://europeelects.eu/iceland/
#Moldova, Presidential election (second round):
99.0% counted
Sandu (*-EPP): 55% (-3)
Stoianoglo (PSRM~LEFT): 45% (+3)
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ http://europeelects.eu/moldova
99.0% counted
Sandu (*-EPP): 55% (-3)
Stoianoglo (PSRM~LEFT): 45% (+3)
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ http://europeelects.eu/moldova
#Poland, United Surveys poll:
Presidential run-off election (different scenarios)
Trzaskowski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 60%
Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 40%
Sikorski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 59%
Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 41%
Trzaskowski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 64%
Hołownia (TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP): 36%
Fieldwork: 25-27 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/poland
Presidential run-off election (different scenarios)
Trzaskowski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 60%
Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 40%
Sikorski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 59%
Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 41%
Trzaskowski (KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA): 64%
Hołownia (TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP): 36%
Fieldwork: 25-27 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/poland
#Denmark, Voxmeter poll:
A-S&D: 20% (-1)
F-G/EFA: 17% (+2)
I-EPP: 13%
V-RE: 11% (-1)
Æ-ECR: 11% (-2)
Ø-LEFT: 6% (-1)
C-EPP: 5% (-1)
O-PfE: 5% (+1)
B-RE: 4% (-1)
M-RE: 3%
Å→G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. 21-27 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October-3 November 2024
Sample size: 1,249
➤ https://europeelects.eu/denmark
A-S&D: 20% (-1)
F-G/EFA: 17% (+2)
I-EPP: 13%
V-RE: 11% (-1)
Æ-ECR: 11% (-2)
Ø-LEFT: 6% (-1)
C-EPP: 5% (-1)
O-PfE: 5% (+1)
B-RE: 4% (-1)
M-RE: 3%
Å→G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. 21-27 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October-3 November 2024
Sample size: 1,249
➤ https://europeelects.eu/denmark
How would Europeans vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if they had a chance?
Pollsters across the continent asked, Europe Elects aggregated:
Harris (~S&D|RE) vs. Trump (ECR) (only those revealing voting intention):
🇩🇰96–4
🇫🇮90–8
🇸🇪90–10
🇳🇱87–13
🇳🇴86–12
🇩🇪85–15
🇮🇪84–16
🇫🇷83–17
🇱🇹83–17
🇦🇹82–18
🇪🇸80–20
🇵🇹79–21
🇧🇪78–22
🇮🇹75–25
🇪🇪74–26
🇨🇭72–20
🇱🇻69–31
🇵🇱69–31
🇬🇧68–32
🇽🇰67–33
🇷🇴62–38
🇬🇷61–39
🇭🇷60–40
🇨🇿54–46
🇸🇮49–51
🇸🇰48–52
🇲🇩44–56
🇧🇬42–58
🇭🇺38–62
🇬🇪34–66
🇷🇸33–67
🇷🇺22–78
Fieldwork: October
Sample size: see details
Details, methodology and raw polls considered in the analysis:
Pollsters across the continent asked, Europe Elects aggregated:
Harris (~S&D|RE) vs. Trump (ECR) (only those revealing voting intention):
🇩🇰96–4
🇫🇮90–8
🇸🇪90–10
🇳🇱87–13
🇳🇴86–12
🇩🇪85–15
🇮🇪84–16
🇫🇷83–17
🇱🇹83–17
🇦🇹82–18
🇪🇸80–20
🇵🇹79–21
🇧🇪78–22
🇮🇹75–25
🇪🇪74–26
🇨🇭72–20
🇱🇻69–31
🇵🇱69–31
🇬🇧68–32
🇽🇰67–33
🇷🇴62–38
🇬🇷61–39
🇭🇷60–40
🇨🇿54–46
🇸🇮49–51
🇸🇰48–52
🇲🇩44–56
🇧🇬42–58
🇭🇺38–62
🇬🇪34–66
🇷🇸33–67
🇷🇺22–78
Fieldwork: October
Sample size: see details
Details, methodology and raw polls considered in the analysis:
Europe Elects Official
How would Europeans vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if they had a chance? Pollsters across the continent asked, Europe Elects aggregated: Harris (~S&D|RE) vs. Trump (ECR) (only those revealing voting intention): 🇩🇰96–4 🇫🇮90–8 🇸🇪90–10 🇳🇱87–13…
Details, methodology and raw polls considered in the analysis: https://europeelects.eu/2024/11/04/u-s-election-europeans-would-vote-for-harris-if-they-could/
Europe Elects
U.S. Election: Europeans Would Vote for Harris if They Could—but There’s a Wide Gulf Between East and West - Europe Elects
The United States elects a new president on Tuesday 5 November. The outcome, of course, interests also elsewhere in the world due to the resulting choice having sizeable…
#Romania, Sociopol poll:
Presidential election
Ciolacu (PSD-S&D): 28% (+2)
Simion (AUR-ECR): 21% (+1)
Ciucă (PNL-EPP): 16% (-1)
Lasconi (USR-RE): 12% (-1)
Geoană (*): 9% (-1)
Diaconescu (*): 8% (-1)
Kelemen (UDMR-EPP): 2%
Terheș (PNCR-ECR): 4% (+3)
+/- vs. 14-18 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 01 November 2024
Sample size: 1,002
➤ https://europeelects.eu/romania
Presidential election
Ciolacu (PSD-S&D): 28% (+2)
Simion (AUR-ECR): 21% (+1)
Ciucă (PNL-EPP): 16% (-1)
Lasconi (USR-RE): 12% (-1)
Geoană (*): 9% (-1)
Diaconescu (*): 8% (-1)
Kelemen (UDMR-EPP): 2%
Terheș (PNCR-ECR): 4% (+3)
+/- vs. 14-18 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 01 November 2024
Sample size: 1,002
➤ https://europeelects.eu/romania
#Hungary, Republikon poll:
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 37% (-4)
TISZA-EPP: 36% (+5)
DK-S&D: 8% (+1)
MH-ESN: 7% (+2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 4% (-2)
Momentum-RE: 4%
MSZP-S&D: 3%
+/- vs. 3-8 July 2024
Fieldwork: October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 37% (-4)
TISZA-EPP: 36% (+5)
DK-S&D: 8% (+1)
MH-ESN: 7% (+2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 4% (-2)
Momentum-RE: 4%
MSZP-S&D: 3%
+/- vs. 3-8 July 2024
Fieldwork: October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
#Hungary, Real-PR 93 poll:
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 44% (-3)
TISZA-EPP: 35% (new)
MH-ESN: 7% (-1)
DK-S&D: 6% (-6)
MKKP→G/EFA: 4% (-7)
+/- vs. 18-21 December 2023
Fieldwork: 28-30 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 44% (-3)
TISZA-EPP: 35% (new)
MH-ESN: 7% (-1)
DK-S&D: 6% (-6)
MKKP→G/EFA: 4% (-7)
+/- vs. 18-21 December 2023
Fieldwork: 28-30 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
#Moldova, Presidential election (second round):
100% counted
Sandu re-elected as President.
Sandu (*-EPP): 55% (-3)
Stoianoglo (PSRM~LEFT): 45% (+3)
+/- vs. 2020 election
Turnout: 54.34%
➤ http://europeelects.eu/moldova
100% counted
Sandu re-elected as President.
Sandu (*-EPP): 55% (-3)
Stoianoglo (PSRM~LEFT): 45% (+3)
+/- vs. 2020 election
Turnout: 54.34%
➤ http://europeelects.eu/moldova
#Italy, SWG poll:
FdI-ECR: 29% (-1)
PD-S&D: 22% (-1)
M5S-LEFT: 12%
FI-EPP: 9%
LEGA-PfE: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7%
A-RE: 3% (+1)
IV-RE: 2%
+E-RE: 2%
ScN-*: 1%
NM-EPP: 1%
PTD-LEFT: 1%
+/- vs. 23-28 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 4 November 2024
Sample size: 1,200
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
FdI-ECR: 29% (-1)
PD-S&D: 22% (-1)
M5S-LEFT: 12%
FI-EPP: 9%
LEGA-PfE: 9%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 7%
A-RE: 3% (+1)
IV-RE: 2%
+E-RE: 2%
ScN-*: 1%
NM-EPP: 1%
PTD-LEFT: 1%
+/- vs. 23-28 October 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 4 November 2024
Sample size: 1,200
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
#Croatia, Promocija Plus poll:
HDZ-EPP: 33% (n.a.)
SDP-S&D: 27% (n.a)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 11% (+2)
Most→ECR: 7% (n.a)
DP-ECR: 4% (n.a)
DOMiNO-ECR: 3% (new)
Centar-RE: 2% (n.a.)
…
+/- vs. 2024 election
Fieldwork: 15-17 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/croatia/
HDZ-EPP: 33% (n.a.)
SDP-S&D: 27% (n.a)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 11% (+2)
Most→ECR: 7% (n.a)
DP-ECR: 4% (n.a)
DOMiNO-ECR: 3% (new)
Centar-RE: 2% (n.a.)
…
+/- vs. 2024 election
Fieldwork: 15-17 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/croatia/
#Croatia, Ipsos poll:
HDZ-EPP: 36% (+1)
SDP-S&D: 26% (+2)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 11% (-1)
Most→ECR: 9% (+1)
DP-ECR: 4% (-2)
+/- vs. 1-20 September 2024
Fieldwork: 1-22 October 2024
Sample size: 980
➤ https://europeelects.eu/croatia/
HDZ-EPP: 36% (+1)
SDP-S&D: 26% (+2)
Možemo!-G/EFA: 11% (-1)
Most→ECR: 9% (+1)
DP-ECR: 4% (-2)
+/- vs. 1-20 September 2024
Fieldwork: 1-22 October 2024
Sample size: 980
➤ https://europeelects.eu/croatia/
Forwarded from Europe Elects Official
How would Europeans vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if they had a chance?
Pollsters across the continent asked, Europe Elects aggregated:
Harris (~S&D|RE) vs. Trump (ECR) (only those revealing voting intention):
🇩🇰96–4
🇫🇮90–8
🇸🇪90–10
🇳🇱87–13
🇳🇴86–12
🇩🇪85–15
🇮🇪84–16
🇫🇷83–17
🇱🇹83–17
🇦🇹82–18
🇪🇸80–20
🇵🇹79–21
🇧🇪78–22
🇮🇹75–25
🇪🇪74–26
🇨🇭72–20
🇱🇻69–31
🇵🇱69–31
🇬🇧68–32
🇽🇰67–33
🇷🇴62–38
🇬🇷61–39
🇭🇷60–40
🇨🇿54–46
🇸🇮49–51
🇸🇰48–52
🇲🇩44–56
🇧🇬42–58
🇭🇺38–62
🇬🇪34–66
🇷🇸33–67
🇷🇺22–78
Fieldwork: October
Sample size: see details
Details, methodology and raw polls considered in the analysis:
Pollsters across the continent asked, Europe Elects aggregated:
Harris (~S&D|RE) vs. Trump (ECR) (only those revealing voting intention):
🇩🇰96–4
🇫🇮90–8
🇸🇪90–10
🇳🇱87–13
🇳🇴86–12
🇩🇪85–15
🇮🇪84–16
🇫🇷83–17
🇱🇹83–17
🇦🇹82–18
🇪🇸80–20
🇵🇹79–21
🇧🇪78–22
🇮🇹75–25
🇪🇪74–26
🇨🇭72–20
🇱🇻69–31
🇵🇱69–31
🇬🇧68–32
🇽🇰67–33
🇷🇴62–38
🇬🇷61–39
🇭🇷60–40
🇨🇿54–46
🇸🇮49–51
🇸🇰48–52
🇲🇩44–56
🇧🇬42–58
🇭🇺38–62
🇬🇪34–66
🇷🇸33–67
🇷🇺22–78
Fieldwork: October
Sample size: see details
Details, methodology and raw polls considered in the analysis:
#Hungary, Medián poll:
TISZA-EPP: 46% (+7)
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 39% (-4)
MH-ESN: 6% (+2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 3%
DK-S&D: 3%
Momentum-RE: 1% (-1)
MSZP-S&D: 1% (n.a.)
Jobbik-NI: 1% (-1)
+/- vs. 3-10 September 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 4 November 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
TISZA-EPP: 46% (+7)
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 39% (-4)
MH-ESN: 6% (+2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 3%
DK-S&D: 3%
Momentum-RE: 1% (-1)
MSZP-S&D: 1% (n.a.)
Jobbik-NI: 1% (-1)
+/- vs. 3-10 September 2024
Fieldwork: 28 October - 4 November 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary
#Ireland: Prime Minister Simon Harris (FG-EPP) has announced that a national parliamentary election will take place on the 29th of November, 2024.
➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland/
➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland/
Europe Elects
Ireland - Europe Elects
National Parliament Composition National Poll Average This poll average is the result of a smoothing cubic spline fitted to our dataset of all national polls collected in Ireland.…
#Ireland, Ireland Thinks poll:
FG-EPP: 26%
FF-RE: 20% (+1)
SF-LEFT: 18% (-1)
SD→S&D: 6%
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)
GP-G/EFA: 4%
AON-*: 3% (-1)
PBP/S~LEFT: 2%
+/- vs. 4-5 October 2024
Fieldwork: 31 October - 1 November 2024
Sample size: 1,832
➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland
FG-EPP: 26%
FF-RE: 20% (+1)
SF-LEFT: 18% (-1)
SD→S&D: 6%
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)
GP-G/EFA: 4%
AON-*: 3% (-1)
PBP/S~LEFT: 2%
+/- vs. 4-5 October 2024
Fieldwork: 31 October - 1 November 2024
Sample size: 1,832
➤ https://europeelects.eu/ireland
#Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 32%
AfD-ESN: 18%
SPD-S&D: 15.5% (-0.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10.5% (+0.5)
BSW-NI: 8%
FDP-RE: 4.5% (+0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 3.5% (-0.5)
+/- vs. 28 October-1 November 2024
Fieldwork: 1-4 November 2024
Sample size: 2,005
➤ http://europeelects.eu/germany
CDU/CSU-EPP: 32%
AfD-ESN: 18%
SPD-S&D: 15.5% (-0.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10.5% (+0.5)
BSW-NI: 8%
FDP-RE: 4.5% (+0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 3.5% (-0.5)
+/- vs. 28 October-1 November 2024
Fieldwork: 1-4 November 2024
Sample size: 2,005
➤ http://europeelects.eu/germany
#Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 33% (+1)
AfD-ESN: 16% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10% (+1)
BSW-NI: 6% (-1)
FDP-RE: 3% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 3%
+/- vs. 22-28 October 2024
Fieldwork: 29 October-4 November 2024
Sample size: 2,500
➤ http://europeelects.eu/germany
CDU/CSU-EPP: 33% (+1)
AfD-ESN: 16% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10% (+1)
BSW-NI: 6% (-1)
FDP-RE: 3% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 3%
+/- vs. 22-28 October 2024
Fieldwork: 29 October-4 November 2024
Sample size: 2,500
➤ http://europeelects.eu/germany